2017 was the best year that had happened to the crypto space. It was “crazy.” Many casual crypto traders became rich overnight. Some altcoins went up for more than 100x of their original price or even more. It all happened within just 1-2 months (December 2017 to January 2018). But, here’s the important question, will we ever have the chance to repeat it? Let’s analyze together.
The Crazy Run Of Bitcoin
After the 2016’s halving, Bitcoin was able to keep going up until December 2017. It was trading around $400-600 by mid-2016, and it slowly kept going up to above $18,000 in December 2017. Sure, there were moments where Bitcoin price was going down, but in overall, the trend was always up.
The crazy run of Bitcoin at the time was mostly affected by the market sentiments. After the halving, many whales (big traders with a big amount of money) kept pumping Bitcoin because they thought it would keep going. There were also a lot of new traders who joined the hype train, pumping the price even more.
When Bitcoin hit $10,000, there were some doubts from the crypto community. Some people assumed the price would eventually go down due to the abnormal price jump. However, Bitcoin kept going up to even above $18,000 in December 2017.
Yes, the bull run finally stopped in 2018. In fact, 2018, was a very bad year for crypto, also known as the “crypto winter.” That being said, the run until December 2017 would be remembered forever as the best year for Bitcoin and altcoins.
Altcoins Were Having The Best Time Of Their Life
Of course, the crazy run of Bitcoin was not just about Bitcoin. Many altcoins were also having the best time of their life. In fact, December 2017 to January 2018 was considered the best year ever for altcoins. Many random altcoins with no real project successfully pumped their price for more than 20-100x. Crazy time, right?
NANO and TRX were the living proof of this statement. They could rise thousands of percent within a very short period of time. The core developers who had a huge amount of token supply suddenly became very rich. Even casual traders who invested in random altcoins became rich as well.
Unlike Bitcoin, where it started to slow down in January 2018, altcoins were having their best moments in that same month. However, the hype quickly died the following month (February 2018).
The very good thing was that some altcoins could jump extremely high, 2017 was much better than any previous altseason. Bitcoin market dominance was also quickly reduced from 62% to above 30%. It was something that perhaps the crypto space would never see again, although, of course, I hope to see it again sometime in the near future.
Can We Repeat It? Let’s Analyze
Everybody, especially greedy traders and altcoin believers, thinks that we can repeat the 2017’s movement. The question that they have in their head is whether it will be this year or next year or in 2020. They are so certain we will have another altseason (which could be bigger than the one we had in 2017).
But, of course, to ever have this type of altseason would be “too good to be true,” although you can never say never in the crypto space. Personally, I think there are certain things that need to happen if we want altseason ever to happen again and be as crazy as 2017’s altseason or better.
Bitcoin Needs To Break Its All-Time High
One of the main factors that need to happen if we want to achieve another altseason like in 2017 is Bitcoin’s ability to break its all-time high. Yes, Bitcoin needs to go to $20,000 and beyond.
If you want to know why it’s simply because of psychological reasons. Yes, people often want to know where are the support and resistance levels. For example, if Bitcoin struggles to break $15,000, there’s a possibility most traders would just dump it instead, and it would create a huge downward pressure to go back to $13,000 or $14,000.
However, if Bitcoin breaks all-time high, the resistance level will be nowhere to be seen. This alone is a huge advantage. Obviously, Bitcoin would go down once it hits 2017’s all-time high level, but it would bounce back as soon as people start thinking the “taking profit” session has finished.
Altseason Would Be Expected Due To Everybody’s Predictions
So, why do I think altseason like 2017 can happen once we get to an all-time high of Bitcoin price? Because everybody believes so, and it can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, after Bitcoin successfully broke the previous all-time high, back in early 2017 the first huge altseason finally began. It did not last long because people sold back their altcoins to buy Bitcoin.
However, the second altseason of the year (December 2017 to January 2018) happened soon afterward, and a lot of traders got rich from their altcoin holdings (assuming they sold at the peak of the altseason and didn’t keep holding).
And due to everybody is predicting the same thing, I believe their action would create a somewhat self-fulfilling prophecy. And this self-fulfilling prophecy would be the actual reason why we might have 1-2 more altseasons sometime in the near future. Whether my prediction is true or not, nobody knows.
Predicting cryptocurrency movements is very hard, I admit that, so I will never know what can actually happen. However, this is what I believe the more likely scenario (again, as long as Bitcoin can break its ATH).